Are We Messing This Up?

Scott Sumner asks whether Europe and America are bungling the Coronavirus outbreak:

Unlike the Chinese, we had several months to plan and then launch an all out effort to address the problem with very aggressive testing of the population to spot outbreaks. And yet both the US and Italian governments seemed unprepared for the outbreak when it finally occurred. [...] If Europe and the US fall into recession we should not blame China. Indeed, many analysts expect the Chinese economy to be almost back to normal by mid-April. Instead, we need to look in the mirror.

Looking at the numbers seems to confirm this. China has reduced its R0 drastically and S.Korea has made an immense effort in testing 140.000 people, and their increase in deaths and news cases has slowed more than Italy's.

Meanwhile the US mess up their testing and the Rest of Europe seems to be slow as well. Authorities still have the main message that all is under control and hesitate to employ drastic measures. At least in Germany and Sweden where I follow the news.

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Covid19 Update

I just started a continuously updated page at /covid19

This graph plots the currently reported case-numbers of a few countries on a logarithmic scale. I have applied a shift of a few days, see the legend, to make the curves match up roughly.

covid19-update

I find remarkable that they can easily be made to line up, as soon as the numbers increase above the noisy few.
Now one could conclude from this that Italy is 4 days behind S.Korea in its outbreak, but the numbers depend on how much testing each country does and S.Korea does a lot more than most. Italy already has more deaths and its outbreak more likely has progressed further than this graph would suggest,

What S.Korea is doing seems to be working. This is good news because it shows that not only dictatorial countries can succeed with their containment measures. Let's hope Europe learns quickly from this.

This is not the flu.

The age dristribution seems to matter a lot. This is just a projection that among other things ignores differences in treatment capabilities.

MIT takes the lead among the bis universities and suspends all foreign travel and meetings until mid-May.

A short interview with Yuval Noah Harari who, as usual, has interesting things to say.

Tyler Cowen tries to explain why people are recting so differently to the developments. I think he is right; this is certainly part of what happens at the meta-level.

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Wolf

wolf

A new food court with microbrewery: wolf.brussels

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Rating Podcasts

I've mentioned some of the podcasts I listen to before, but rarely commented on individual eposides since I listen to too many. I think Twitter should be a good medium to gove my verdicts in sort form, and to not flood my main account @ivh (which you should follow, by the way!) I made a new one: @rating_podcasts.

Which reminds me: I should look further into a self-hosted alternative to Twitter, like one from the Fediverse.

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Roggenmisch

roggenmisch

Besides brewing beer, baking bread is definitely a hobby that I am happy to have picked up. This one is fresh out of the oven and made with mostly rye flour, fermenting in stages since yesterday.

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Worthwhile

A random set of internet gems that I enjoyed recently, starting with the Coronavirus COVID19. Three Twitterers that seem to knowledgable, up-to-date and not hyping-up matters are Kai Kupferschmidt, Helen Branswell and Ian M Mackay. Plus, there are good articles coming from down under.

Don't bury the lede, not even in grant applications.

The International Space Station in LEGO. I like that this is an official set, not a custom design or one-off sale. Speaking of which: My Science Tower is still waiting to be built.

Quit the news! (PDF) It's bad for you!

Robin Hanson comapares Parasite and Joker. This made me think less of Parasite and want to watch Joker. I have downloaded it, but not gotten around to it yet.

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Posting Images from Android to a Static Site

posting-from-android

I didn't post this picture because it is in any way interesting in itself, but because I can! From my phone, that is!

Let me back up and tell you why I find that exciting. This site is statically generated and a new blog post is added via a markdown file, re-compiling and uploading. This means firing up the text editor and some quick command-line actions after finishing the writing. This fits me perfectly fine, most of the time.

But when it comes to images, I found always it cumbersome to first download them to my laptop for processing and inclusion in a post. Which is why I finally got around to figuring out how to post them directly from the phone that takes the image.

The centerpice for making this work is Termux which gives you a full Linux-environment on Android devices; it's really really good and can do much more than I describe here. Termux supports the "Share with..." mechanism and allows me to execute a script with the shared file as argument. So I adapted my script that prepares the markdown file and resizes the image for this purpose.

Now when I share an image from my phone with Termux, the following steps happen:

  • The image is saved in Termux.
  • My script is called with the image location.
  • It asks me to enter a title which is used as the post title, the URL-slug and the filenames.
  • The Markdown template with this information, the image link and date/time is prepared, and saved.
  • A text editor is fired up to verify and/or write an extra line in the mardown-file.
  • The image gets resized and renamed accordingly.
  • The files get added and committed to the repository, and pushed to GitHub.
  • Finally, Pelican is told to re-compile the site into HTML, make the smaller inline-version of the image, and upload everything with rsync to my RaspberryPi-server.

Done.

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The Fall Of The Rebel Angels

the-fall-of-the-rebel-angels

What's not to like about this painting by Bruegel from 1562‽ I've been using it as my desktop background for a while and still discover new details.

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Comments Are Back

The possibility to leave comments on blog posts is back! Thanks to Isso which provides a stand-alone solution for self-hosted comments. Please let me know if there are technical hiccups...

I might even import the old comments from the Wordpress-site at some point, they are not lost.

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Are Stars Alive?

The other day over lunch we half-jokingly talked about whether or not stars are alive. A colloquialism among astronomers is that a star is "dead" when there is no more nuclear fusion, so stars in the late stages of their evolution are "dying". Some smartass took the metaphor literally and pointed out that stars are always dead, never alive. But are they, really? they asked in return.

Now, the gut reaction is, of course, that stars are not alive. They are described quite well by physics alone, with a little bit of inorganic chemistry. But one should always question one's own intuitions and stars after all do have metabolism, a life-cycle and are "born" in generations. They do not reproduce directly, but by enriching the interstellar medium with they fusion products, thereby influencing the next generation of stars. Stretching the analogy, one could say that stars that fail in doing this (for example stars that collapse into a black hole without supernova explosion) have "failed to reproduce" in an evolutionary sense.

At the time I could not quite articulate why it still felt wrong to me to call stars alive, and I did not want to argue by some outdated list of strict criteria, vaguely remembering that the definition of life does not have such a clear-cut answer as one would like.

Luckily one the podcats I listen to just answered it for me: Sean Carroll interviewing Sara Imari Walker on Information and the Origin of Life .

They don't talk about stars, but connecting life to information processing was what had slipped my mind over lunch that day. I will not reiterate it here but highly recommend to listen for yourself, or read the transcript on that same page.

A highlight for me was this section:

There is something about intelligence as a physical process that’s quite different. If you just had physics and chemistry and no biology, no organisms, no evolutionary history acquiring info§rmation, you would never see a planet launching satellites into space.

What’s interesting to me is what can happen causally in the Universe. And I think there’s a lot of processes that can happen, but just don’t. And that what biology does is it somehow can cause things to happen that wouldn’t happen outside of the kind of process that biology is. And so, I think there is a deep connection actually between information and causation.

(Slightly edited and condensed by me.)

Another take-away message is that "life" or "no life" is not necessarily a binary decision, but a continuum. Things can be less alive than others. I think this maps nicely onto consciousness. It's not that there is some moment when "the lights turn on" but a scale with some beings haveing more of it than others.

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